5.11.2024
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Presidential Election
Political Election Betting: A Growing Phenomenon and the Current US Presidential Race
Betting on political elections has gained substantial popularity in recent years, drawing millions of participants globally, even as regulations in some markets remain ambiguous. In the US, anticipation around the upcoming presidential election has spurred unprecedented betting activity, with players keen to predict outcomes in a race that could once again reshape the political landscape.
Possible Delays in Election Results
For bettors eager to see if their predictions will yield rewards, patience may be necessary. While polls for the US presidential election will close between 6 pm and 1 am EST, results have historically varied in timing. Some candidates are declared winners the same night, while others require days of counting or recounting.
For instance, Joe Biden’s victory in the previous election wasn’t confirmed until four days after polls closed, whereas Donald Trump was declared the winner in 2016 only hours after voting ended. In the event of close results, recounts and potential legal challenges may delay the final outcome. In extreme cases, such as in the 2000 election, results took weeks to finalize, highlighting the unpredictability of when bettors might cash out.
Election Predictions: Who Has the Edge?
Betting markets remain divided on the likely outcome of this election. Donald Trump, with significant backing from influential business figures, faces off against Vice President Kamala Harris, who has earned considerable grassroots support. Elon Musk, a known supporter of Trump, acknowledged Harris’ strong debate performance, which has garnered her favorable attention.
Despite this, current betting trends suggest Trump holds a slight advantage, though many experts predict a close race that might even result in a tie. In that case, a rare contingent election in the House of Representatives could determine the next president, something that has happened only twice in US history. Regardless of timing, the inauguration is set for January 20, 2025, meaning bettors and the public alike will eventually have answers.
Kalshi and the Surge in Political Betting Markets
With just days remaining before the election, Kalshi, a regulated US-based prediction market, has seen a massive increase in election betting. Since its recent relaunch of election betting, Kalshi has recorded over $70 million in trading, largely due to demand surging in the days leading up to the election.
Jack Such, a Kalshi spokesperson, highlighted that prediction markets can offer insights potentially more accurate than traditional polling. The ability for Americans to buy and sell election contracts is not only a way to hedge candidate risk but also provides a real-time sentiment indicator of public opinion, which often reacts faster than polls.
Legal and Compliance Aspects of Political Betting on Kalshi
Kalshi’s relaunch was made possible after an appeals court ruled in favor of the platform in its case against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Although the CFTC is pursuing further legal action, it hasn’t imposed any restrictions on Kalshi’s current election betting activities. Kalshi, for its part, continues to closely monitor all transactions to prevent fraud or suspicious activity, with its compliance team proactively suspending any accounts that violate their anti-money-laundering policies.
Popular Markets and Emerging Trends in Election Betting
This month, Kalshi introduced over 25 new political betting markets, with more expected to be added soon. The most popular option remains the “Who will win the Presidential Election?” market, where the latest data shows Trump with a 58% likelihood of winning, compared to 42% for Harris. Besides predicting the next president, bettors are also investing in outcomes like “Who will win the popular vote?” and “Senate margin of victory,” offering a broad spectrum of possibilities.
Key Points for Political Bettors
- 1. Timing of Results: Due to potential recounts or legal challenges, results may take days or even weeks.
- 2. Current Betting Odds: Trump currently leads with a narrow edge, though a close race is expected.
- 3. Kalshi’s Market Expansion: New betting options are available, allowing for diverse political forecasts.
- 4. Compliance Measures: Kalshi remains vigilant with strict anti-money-laundering standards, safeguarding its market integrity.
As election day approaches, betting on political outcomes continues to captivate participants. With platforms like Kalshi leading the way, political bettors are closely watching every debate, poll, and market trend, knowing that election results may come swiftly or require patience. Whether results arrive on the night of the election or weeks later, one thing is certain: election betting has become a new staple of political engagement in the modern era.
